POLI 100B CONGRESS
14 February 2006



  1. Summary

  1. The Effect of Redistricting

    Fiorina rejected redistricting as an explanation of the "Vanishing Marginals" in his 1977 book but Cox and Katz in Elbridge Gerry's Salamander argue that redistricting was an important factor. Below is an example of why redistricting is important.

    Hypothetical State to be Redistricted
    First Republican Plan
    Second Republican Plan
    Democratic Plan

  2. Congressional Elections

    1. The Seats-Votes Curve for Democrats: 1946 - 2004



    2. The Seats-Votes Curve for Republicans: 1946 - 2004



    3. Midterm Loss of Seats for the President's Party



      Bush 2000 47.9%, Republicans 2002 49.6%, Gained 6 Seats House, 2 Seats Senate

    4. Voter Turnout (Voting Age) 1930 - 2000



    5. Voter Turnout (Eligible) 1788 - 2004



    6. Trust in Government 1952 - 2004



    7. Trust in Government (new Series from ICPSR) - Different Methodology -- 1958 - 2004



    8. Table 5.3 (Stewart) -- Attitudes and Turnout



    9. Figure 5.2 (Stewart) -- Variation in Turnout Among House Districts -- 1994 (Low) vs. 1996 (High)



    10. Figure 5.3 (Stewart) - Turnout and Winning Percentage of the Vote - House Elections 1994 and 1996



    11. Voters, Candidates, and Issues (Erikson and Wright, Ch. 4 D & O)

      1. Partisanship and Seats Shares



      2. Spending Preferences from NPAT surveys: 2002 and 1998





      3. Issue Differences by Political Party from NPAT surveys: 2002 and 1998





      4. Distribution of Candidate Ideology by Party, 2002 and 1998





      5. The Incumbency Advantage in the House: 2002 and 1998





      6. Challenger Quality: 2002 and 1998





      7. Candidate Ideology by District Presidential Vote: 2002 and 1998





      8. Member Ideology and the House Vote: 2002 and 1998





      9. Winning Candidate's Ideology by District Presidential Vote: 2002 and 1998





      10. Voter's Perceptions of the Ideology of their Representative: 1978 - 2002